基于改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型的职业病预测研究

为了更准确地预测职业病，在传统GM(1,1)模型的基础上，提出改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型，在传统的GM(1,1)模型中引入弱化算子，将紧邻均值与原始数据之间的线性假设改为非线性假设，提高曲线的拟合度。以2005—2014年的全国职业病例数为研究对象，进行数据拟合和预测分析，其中以2014年职业病例数作为验证数据，并利用后验差比值和小误差概率2个参数，检验该改进模型的预测精度。由应用实例的分析结果可知:在职业病发病趋势的预测方面，改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型的预测精度提高到一级，曲线拟合度较高，预测得到2015年的职业病例数为34 900例。     

Understanding the distribution of bushmeat hunting effort across landscapes by testing hypotheses about human foraging

Mitigating the massive impacts of defaunation on natural ecosystems requires understanding and predicting hunting effort across the landscape. But such understanding has been hindered by the difficulty of assessing the movement patterns of hunters in thick forests and across complex terrain. We statistically tested hypotheses about the spatial distribution of hunting with circuit theory and structural equation models. We used a data set of >7000 known kill locations in Guyana and hunter movement models to test these methods. Comparing models with different resistance layers (i.e., different estimates of how terrain and land cover influence human movement speed) showed that rivers, on average, limited movement rather than serving as transport arteries. Moreover, far more kills occurred close to villages than in remote areas. This, combined with the lack of support for structural equation models that included latent terms for prey depletion driven by past overhunting, suggests that kill locations in this system tended to be driven by where hunters were currently foraging rather than by influences of historical harvest. These analyses are generalizable to a variety of ecosystems, species, and data types, providing a powerful way of enhancing maps and predictions of hunting effort across complex landscapes.     

Perceived mastery climate,felt trust,and knowledge sharing

Interpersonal trust is associated with a range of adaptive outcomes, including knowledge sharing. However, to date, our knowledge of antecedents and consequences of employees feeling trusted by supervisors in organizations remains limited. On the basis of a multisource, multiwave field study among 956 employees from 5 Norwegian organizations, we examined the predictive roles of perceived mastery climate and employee felt trust for employees' knowledge sharing. Drawing on the achievement goal theory, we develop and test a model to demonstrate that when employees perceive a mastery climate, they are more likely to feel trusted by their supervisors at both the individual and group levels. Moreover, the relationship between employees' perceptions of a mastery climate and supervisor‐rated knowledge sharing is mediated by perceptions of being trusted by the supervisor. Theoretical contributions and practical implications of our findings are discussed.     

Factors influencing perceptions of aquatic ecosystems

While factors influencing perceptions of drinking water have been well studied, those of aquatic ecosystems have been to lesser extent. We conducted a review to improve awareness of these factors. Environmental factors found to influence public perceptions of aquatic ecosystems were presence/absence of water plants and algae, presence/absence of floating debris, the odor, movement (for flowing waters) and clarity/turbidity of the water, and the type, condition, setting, naturalness, and overall aesthetic appeal of the ecosystem. Sociocultural factors found to influence public perceptions of aquatic ecosystems included age, education, gender, and place-based knowledge. We provide perspectives of how managers can better meet the diverse social demands placed on aquatic ecosystems. The importance and benefits of considering these perspectives may be especially beneficial where significant multi-generational and culturally relevant place-based knowledge exist.     

UV-Fenton法处理中药废水的研究

采用UV-Fenton技术对中药废水进行氧化处理,对主要影响因素及其对废水处理效果的影响进行了实验研究。主要考察了废水pH、H2O2投加量,Fe2＋投加量,Fe2＋/H2O2投加比、温度等对废水中CODcr去除率的影响。实验结果表明,在pH=3.83,H2O2投加量为1倍理论投加量Qth,Fe2＋投加量为7.9×10-3mol.l-1,Fe2＋：H2O2=1：27,23℃的情况下反应80 min后CODcr去除率达到80.25%,UV-Fenton氧化系统对中药废水有比较好的处理效果,改善了废水的可生化性,有利于进一步进行生化处理。     

基于文献计量视角的我国应急资源研究进展分析*

为理清应急资源研究发展脉络和研究热点,基于文献计量分析,从作者合作、机构合作、关键词共现、研究热点突现、关键词时序图谱5个方面,对1999—2021年中国知网（CNKI）收录的1 503篇相关文献进行知识图谱分析,展现我国应急资源研究领域空间分布特征及研究热点。结果表明:在我国应急资源研究领域,作者和机构分布呈多元化发展趋势,当前研究热点包括多目标优化、选址-分配、NSGA-Ⅱ、公平性。人工智能技术、区块链技术、共享经济模式在应急资源配置中的应用是未来研究趋势。     

荷电超滤膜对天然有机物去除及膜污染行为的影响

以Aldrich 腐殖酸溶液为水样,研究比较了溶液环境(pH值、离子强度和钙离子)对荷电改性再生纤维素超滤膜和传统中性未改性再生纤维素超滤膜过滤过程的影响.结果表明, ①pH值主要通过质子化作用影响荷电膜以及腐殖酸分子的荷电量,进而影响荷电超滤过程.溶液pH值从7.5下降到3.5时,荷电超滤膜对腐殖酸的截留率从92%减少到79%,超滤4 h时,膜通量下降从26%增加到36%.②离子强度的改变是通过影响腐殖酸分子的物化性质和静电屏蔽作用来影响超滤过程的.当溶液离子强度为0、 3和100 mmol/L时,初始截留率依次降低,分别为92%、 87%和48%,超滤4 h时,荷电超滤膜的通量下降依次增加,分别为26%、 35%和63%.③Ca2+浓度的影响,需要综合考虑静电屏蔽作用、Ca2+的架桥作用以及滤饼层的压实性等各方面的影响.④pH值、离子强度和钙离子对中性超滤膜过滤行为的影响趋势与荷电超滤膜相似,但其影响程度有着较大的差别.研究结果对荷电超滤膜技术在实际应用中选择合适环境条件提供了参考.     

中药废水污泥群落结构解析中PCR-DGGE引物的选择与评价

在中药废水生物活性污泥群落DGGE解析过程中,为了探讨16S rDNA通用引物的扩增效率和对污泥细菌群落的表征能力,选用包括简并性引物在内的11对通用引物扩增16S rDNA序列的4个可变区,并应用DGGE图谱评价不同引物的扩增效率和微生物种群多样性.结果表明,采用不同引物对进行DGGE分析时,微生物种群多样性存在着显...     

Dynamics of local governance in natural resource conservation in the Okavango Delta,Botswana

There has been a shift in natural resource management worldwide. This paper describes how modern institutions and policies influence management and shape access to and utilization of resources by rural communities in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. It is rooted in the framework of adaptive co‐governance within social‐ecological systems, and employs a critical literature review to analyse access to and use of natural resources in rural Botswana. Prior to the establishment of community‐based natural resource management (CBNRM) in Botswana in 1989, resource governance was dominated by strong traditional institutions that were responsible for natural resource management and decision‐making. Contemporary natural resource governance is characterized by a bureaucratic system that invariably undermines the role of traditional institutions in natural resource governance. Findings indicate that policies and regulatory instruments deny rural communities adequate access to and utilization of resources available within their immediate environment. In spite of an orientation towards an anthropocentric approach to natural resource management (as in the case of CBNRM), the current governance system continues to undermine the inclusion of local resource users as legitimate stakeholders in the decision‐making process.